AI vs Jobs: Who's to blame?

The robots are knocking at our doors, calling out for employment in industries. Thanks to Artificial Intelligence, we're braced for the world's biggest transformation, since the industrial revolution. With the recent breakthroughs in technology, many jobs could cease to exist. As per one estimate, 40% of the world's jobs would be replaced by automated robots capable of doing their own tasks. The simplest jobs would be the first to go. Those who depend on earning their livelihood could be the worst impacted. The conspiracy theorists, the technologists, the scientists, the engineers, even the journalists seem to carry their own subjective views...

The Fuss about Machine Learning...

Let's first talk about this Machine Learning thingy. Computers are exceptionally great at following rules, written into programs. If you have a low credit card score, the interest rate on your card should be at a certain level, that's a rule a computer follows. Keep adding rules, and you'll get an algorithm. Keep adding more algorithms that instruct the computer how to use current algorithms, you'll get the machine to learn on its own. Machine Learning, a subset of the much-abused term AI, has its genes from computational optimization and mathematical statistics. The computer is fed with vast amounts of data sets, is given a few parameters on how to manipulate that data, inherently pointing it to the right direction. Then, it recognizes recurring sequences in data and writes its own rules based on that. Unlike traditional computing, ML uses a heuristic approach to meet its target.

Now, based on that fed data, it somehow knows how to find patterns in data and use those patterns in its own favor. It is no longer limited to applying algorithms that a human wrote. It creates its own algorithms. Once this machine spots a new pattern, it can instantly be 'learned' by other machines linked to the same platform. The bigger the input data set is, the more the machine spends time with algorithms, the more it ends up learning from its mistakes.

And the machine keeps getting better, and wiser...

The Start

There was a time when AI used to be the fascinating concept of science fiction movies (Millenials would remember the hype when The Matrix came out). But with the breakneck speed with which it has expanded over the decades, scientists feel that we are finally getting close to making AI a reality. In recent years, scientists have made breakthroughs in Machine Learning, using Neural Networks, which mimics the processes of real neurons, deployed the concepts of Deep Learning using complex algorithms, thereby allowing computers to perform sophisticated operations like Facial Recognition, so on and so forth. In fact, there is more power in our pockets right now than we used to have in our homes in the 1990s. With the rapidity with which AI has been expanding, we may be seeing more of its integration in our lives relatively soon.

While this might be a Eureka! moment for many of the tech geeks like us, AI is creating its own fear among the masses who earn or crave for a living; the fear of getting fired.

Automation vs Manual Labor

Let's take the case of General Motors, who confirmed last month that it has started cutting about 8,000 white-collar jobs, including salaried and contract workers so it can raise profit margins and invest more in autonomous and electric vehicles. Apparently, the company is aiming at incorporating an autonomous ride sharing and delivery of goods in its workspace. With the AI industry at its boom, the auto industry is changing at a rapid pace, automakers are firing their good ol' unskilled workers in bulk, seeking to replace them with a handful of tech workers as they reshape. So while many traditional jobs might be ending, new 'tech' jobs are being created too, but at a slower pace.

No sooner than later, artificial intelligence (AI) will pervade our lives. We can already find them in everyday devices like smartphones and refrigerators, and they are being applied across a broad range of industries, such as banking, finance, accounting, logistics, human resources, medicine, manufacturing, and farming. We are stuffed with bots (Pun Intended). But what does this mean for workers in these industries? Thankfully, right now, robots are not always the most cost-effective option for companies. Over the next 5 to 10 years, sewing machine operators will still remain the most cost-effective employers than sewing robots in the garments industry. But a decade from now? The machines will sew your clothes.

It's not surprising that ‘Made by Humans’ labels will soon adorn our most special creations one day. Customers, especially the luxury clients, will seek out the human touch and will pay a premium for it. This will be the ultimate expression of luxury’s human-machine balance.

This is a polite way of saying that humans will be out of job soon. 

Where Humans Go Wrong...

From superintelligent robots taking over the world, to fiery driverless car crashes, to the coming-of-age killer machines, more and more the rise of AI seems like a sci-fi movie whenever a technological experiment goes wrong in the real world. But it's the end of jobs that horrifies us the most. But the change is not going to be dramatic. It's not going to be autonomous driverless cars wiping out the whole traditional auto industry, or serving robots quickly displacing all the waiters of the world. It will be gradual. As soon as one chain adapts, the other chains would have no choice of competing with the bots, and this would set off a chain reaction of mass unemployment and societal breakdown.

A recent McKinsey Global Institute study showed us that 60% of all jobs could easily see 30% of their work fall to machines. Based on the study’s simulations, robots probably cost about 400,000 US jobs each year in 1990-2007, many of them middle-income manufacturing jobs, especially in industries like automobiles, plastics, and pharmaceuticals. Even the governments have struggled to address what is being projected as an AI-fueled employment apocalypse.

There are 3 main reasons as to why Artificial Intelligence has been able to successfully enter into our lives and make such huge inroads into fields of work that humans previously dominated:-

• We create billions of Terabytes of data every day, which is exactly what AI needs to learn from.
• Digital storage is cheaper, so it is easier to hang onto that data.
• Computer Power has increased, so it's possible to crunch through all that data.

AI has finally reached a tipping point where it is no longer regarded as merely a laboratory experimentation or the antagonist of Hollywood movies by the masses. People have started to adhere to the fact that while AI is having a measurable impact on employment, its applications still outnumber the drawbacks it may create. In essence, the idea of AI algorithms taking our jobs is seen as something unnatural, an affront against how society is supposed to function. While the beings are enthusiastic and obsessed with making a machine that could imitate a real being, they are really making a fool out of themselves by creating these master machines without considering any safeguards.

AI is becoming better

AI is a tool that can, with a click of a finger, make very smart decisions based on the data we feed to it. Yes, even better than people. One main reason behind this is, AI doesn't have emotions. Unlike humans, who can get overwhelmed by their emotional instincts easily, AI purely takes decisions based on computational statistics. So the more the routine jobs, the more AI will take over. It will increasingly eliminate repetitive jobs, not only blue-collar (Manual Labor) but also white-collar (professional jobs). Chauffeurs, truck drivers, chefs, waiters, shopkeepers, mechanics, any profession that might be programmed for a bot, is set to be automated completely within 15 years.

Innovation is the pillar on which our modern civilization stands. Major innovations in history, like the steam engine or electricity, have affected the lifestyle of humans in a negative way. But humans have "gotten over it". But this...Artificial Intelligence, is a kind of innovation that could disrupt entire communities, disproportionately affect low-income workers. and have inconsequential repercussions. There's no slowing down AI and its impact on society. Right now, we are trying to reach the first stage, i.e., General Intelligence. But once AI acquires superintelligence in future (and gains sentience), it will be impossible even for humans to stop it.

Machine Learning applications are wide-ranging. From classifying emails as Spam or Not Spam on your Gmail account to influencing voters using their brand preferences, from showing suggestions about items you might wanna buy on Amazon to playing songs of your mood & interest on Spotify, from maximizing the amount of time a user spends on Netflix to confirming the theories of the Quantum Mechanics, AI has done it all. All this time the computer is involved in computational calculations, ML is employed in absorbing new data as it comes, learning from it and improving its accuracy everytime.

The Desperation!

The concept of a sentient robot that can do everything a human can and more, has been a part of the pop culture for decades. Even though many are fearing what AI might bring for us in the near future, mankind is still obsessed with the fascinating thought of producing an all-powerful superintelligent AI. Curiosity drives them. Imitating the brain of a human being to near perfection is extraordinarily complex, if not impossible; computers are the very definition of literal: they lack sarcasm, thought, curiosity and reasoning capabilities, while human's brain is a small universe in itself. While AI might be employed in various professions, it is difficult to say if they'll be able to leave the same impression on their customers as their human counterparts. I mean, no student would like to study from a teacher who is too wise but lacks a sense of humor terribly. Even if you program it to crack jokes, they will be monotonous, or ludicrous. That also explains why AI can't be a comedian. Imagine an AI doing standup comedy alongside Kapil Sharma! Wouldn't that be awkward? :p

But this world is full of geniuses. Who knows who would be able to invent a robot that is so human-like that even a human is not able to recognize him?

By the way, if you think your job is currently safe, give it five years.